EsteCoach

Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions: push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.33 (0–3).

The goal date is a straight line at today's pace. Loss usually slows, so it's the pace you're on, not a promise.

The headline is the 14-day average, since one morning swings ±1.5 lb on water. The 4-week fit is a line through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins. The two rows compare averages instead: the last 7 days against the 7 before, and the last 4 weeks against the 4 before, so they land near the fit but not on it. The weight prediction fits its own line since the cut started.

Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estecoach.toml). The last 7 days lost less than the 4-week pace. A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.

Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 186 lb 14-day average by body weight^2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters. e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard. DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.

Running low means under 90% of the reference intake, from food and supplements; near an upper limit means 50% of it or more.

kcal a day over 14 complete days of the last 14. The readiness card's nutrition line uses the last 4 days, so its number differs. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake. Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7). They differ by 319 kcal/day. Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 149 g/day at the 14-day trend (estecoach.toml); you're averaging 157 g, 105% of it. For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.

Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50. Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient. Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml. Estimated from food logs and labels, not a blood test.

Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.

Data coverage says whether enough days are being logged for the prediction to be judged at all, not whether it is coming true.

The call is graded against what happened after it. Recorded calls are the calls as they were made each morning; they are the real test, and they start empty. The made-up athlete has no mornings, so theirs are backfilled: each day's call made from only the data before it. Under today's rules replays every past session through the current votes; it was fitted on the same sessions, so it flatters the rule. If go-hard and take-it-easy days don't end up apart, the call isn't earning its place.

Exercise minutes are Apple's, from all activity. Hard sets are sets at RPE 7 or more, or every working set where no RPE was logged. Tonnage is logged weight × reps; pull-ups add sets, not pounds.

Load ratio is exercise minutes a day over the last 7 days divided by the same over the last 4 weeks, through yesterday. 1.0 is a normal week. Over 1.3 is a sharp jump and over 1.5 is where injury risk climbs; under 0.8 is a light week, flagged because a big session straight after one is the classic way to get hurt.